After The Open in 2014, Rory McIlroy had delivered on the promise he’d shown as a talented teenager to become a three-time major winner.
Rory McIlroy was now a Masters win away from the career Grand Slam, having won The Open at Royal Liverpool, an event many thought was incompatible with his playing style.
He’d already been in position to win The Masters in 2011, before McIlroy melted down on Sunday, so it looked only to be a matter of time until he completed the set. The question now was how many would the Northern Irishman win?
Jack Nicklaus said McIlroy could win 20 majors, surpassing his record of 18. But Padraig Harrington made a prediction about the sport’s future that would prevent McIlroy from doing this, and he turned out to be exactly correct.
What Padraig Harrington said would happen to golf because of Rory McIlroy
As the golf world speculated how many majors a 24-year-old McIlroy would go on to win, three-time major winner Harrington put the brakes on that discussion. He said a major change was coming that meant if McIlroy wanted to hunt down Nicklaus, he’d have to do it quickly.
Harrington explained, “Rory has won three Majors in four years, which is pretty good. If he continues to win at that rate, he’ll have a very successful career. He could be competitive for the next 20 years … and that’s 15 more Majors.
“But as we’ve found with other players, there are things we can’t foresee down the road. Nobody ever would have thought Tiger would stop at 14. When he got to 14 it appeared almost inevitable he’d get to 18.
“Just because you’re good enough doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. Things happen, injuries for example. If Rory is to get to high numbers, it is the next (few) years that will determine it. The more years where he wins two or three, that’s how you get to 14 … Tiger had four in a calendar year.
“In 10 years’ time, then (his strike rate) might slow down to one every two years, so he won’t be as prolific. So the time for him to play his ‘A’ game is right now. Age is on his side, but not necessarily time. I do see a change coming quickly in golf with Rory driving the ball probably better than anybody else in the game.
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“There are a couple of guys longer than him, but he is more effective. He hits it straighter and higher. So he has an advantage, and he lives off that advantage because the courses and conditions suit him.
“At the moment when he plays well he has stolen a march on everybody else. Whoever it is, if he’s got his ‘A’ game, whoever is trying to beat him will need their ‘A’ game to be there with him. Whether that’s an Adam Scott or Tiger (Woods), they’re going to have to play their very best to compete with Rory.
“He has the ability to go into the Majors as favourite for a long number of years. But, in time, the kids in college now are going to learn from Rory and come out with similar games. They might not be as good as him, but they will have similarities. There will be more players like him.
“Tiger had that advantage, and it’s been eaten up now, and Rory’s advantage will be eaten up in time too. Like Tiger, Rory’s started going that way (early). Yet the hardest thing in golf is winning from the front and Rory is very capable of doing that.
“I was talking about that purely on the basis of years. If you want to get to (18), you have to start winning young because you’re not going to win many Majors after 40.”
Why Padraig Harrington has been proven right
McIlroy is still one of the longest hitters in the game. In 2025, he ranked second on the PGA Tour in driving distance, averaging 323 yards per drive. But Harrington is exactly right. His advantage has been nullified.
Hitting the ball 300 yards off the tee used to be an achievement. Now, it’s the average driving distance on the PGA Tour. And while McIlroy is still a prolific driver in comparison to his competitors, that simply means less in the modern game. Aldrich Potgieter led the PGA Tour in distance, but he still missed 11 cuts.
McIlroy popularised the long-hitting style, and as Harrington predicted, the next generation followed suit. Since then, Bryson DeChambeau arrived on the scene to become McIlroy’s fierce rival, and Marco Penge is the newest name on the PGA Tour to raise eyebrows with his driving.
But what Scottie Scheffler’s dominance in 2025 proved is that iron play is king. Scheffler was laser accurate with his irons over the last three seasons, leading the PGA Tour in approach play. And he’s quickly become the most dominant player since Tiger Woods.
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Now that everybody can hit it far, every player is hitting mid-irons at worst into greens. So with everyone on the same playing field, their ability with those irons is emphasized. 10 years ago, McIlroy would have been one of the few players hitting short clubs into greens. He no longer has that edge.
With the rapid development of technology and the rising popularity of long driving, McIlroy’s advantage with his driver simply means less. In fact, his Masters win and three PGA Tour victories were his best iron performances of the season.
That proves Harrington’s prediction exactly right.
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