Keith Mitchell claimed earlier this week that it is Rory McIlroy, rather than Scottie Scheffler, who has the highest ceiling of any player he has ever seen.
Scottie Scheffler is undoubtedly the man to beat on the PGA Tour in 2026. The world number one won six times this past season. He added two more majors to his tally, and is now a US Open victory away from completing the Career Grand Slam.
How many majors do you think Scottie Scheffler will win during his career?
The world number one already has four majors under his belt
Rory McIlroy also enjoyed the most significant year of his career. He won The Masters at long last. Meanwhile, he was Europe’s talisman at the Ryder Cup.
Despite Mitchell’s praise, however, McIlroy will be under no illusions regarding the size of the task facing him as he looks to catch Scheffler.
The weakness that prevented Rory McIlroy winning more in 2025
It was a strange year for McIlroy. He won three times on the PGA Tour, as well as at the Irish Open.
The 36-year-old was inside the top 10 for strokes gained off the tee and putting in 2025. But there was one glaring weakness, with McIlroy 68th for strokes gained approach.
That is the lowest he has been across his entire PGA Tour career.
When you factor in that Scheffler has been number one in the same category for the last three years, it is clear to see how important good iron play has become. Tiger Woods lauded Scheffler’s approach game recently ahead of the Hero World Challenge.
McIlroy’s best year in that category within the last decade came in 2023. He gained 0.721 per round across the season, leaving him eighth on tour.
It is the only time since 2012 that he has found himself in the top 10.
How close McIlroy would have been to Scottie Scheffler in 2025 had his approach play been near its best
McIlroy is widely considered one of the greatest drivers of the golf ball ever. However, it appears that the success of his iron play is a reasonable indicator of how well he is performing overall.
The five-time major champion has gained on average 0.6 shots with his approach play in five PGA Tour seasons. And incredibly, they are the only five seasons in which McIlroy has reached double figures for top 10s – something Scheffler has turned into an art form over the last two years in particular.
| Season | Rory McIlroy’s strokes gained approach | PGA Tour top 10s |
| 2012 | 1.002 | 10 |
| 2014 | 0.602 | 12 |
| 2019 | 0.633 | 14 |
| 2022 | 0.626 | 10 |
| 2023 | 0.721 | 13 |
If McIlroy can rediscover the success he enjoyed with his iron play in 2023 – he is a vastly different player to 2012 – the gap to Scheffler could close considerably.
Obviously, that is easier said than done. But if McIlroy added his 2023 approach play to the rest of his 2025 statistics, he would join Scheffler in averaging more than two strokes gained on the field per round.
Do you think Rory McIlroy will win two or more majors before he retires?
McIlroy has arguably never been better on the greens. Meanwhile, his consistency with the driver is one of his biggest strengths.
If he can find a way to improve his iron game, he could genuinely rival the number of wins Scheffler enjoys in 2026.
And the encouraging news for the Northern Irishman is that it really was not that long ago that he was one of the best iron players on the PGA Tour.
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