Rory McIlroy predicts what the winning score will be at the Dubai Desert Classic after falling out of contention

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Rory McIlroy doesn’t look like he’s going to win the Dubai Desert Classic but he’s made a solid prediction on what the winning score might well end up being.

McIlroy has battled his way around the Dubai course through three rounds now and is not completely out of things at five-under after three rounds.

Of course, the leaders are up and around the 11 and 12 under marks, with Daniel Hillier and Ewen Ferguson continuing to set the pace.

• READ MORE: Jon Rahm says whether he’ll ever play in the Dubai Desert Classic again after missing the cut

McIlroy will keep battling away and if he starts well in round four, he’ll fancy himself to at least climb the leaderboard a touch.

However, whether or not McIlroy can win is another matter and the four-time major winner believes the winning score might have already been set.

Rory McIlroy predicts the winning score for the Dubai Desert Classic

Speaking to the media after his second round saw him well off the leader Ewen Ferguson, McIlroy suggested that things won’t get much better over the weekend and in the end, Ferguson’s score might be enough to win out.

“Yeah, I think so, especially the way the golf course is going. Obviously 11-under is leading. You know, Ewen Ferguson might get there if he birdies the last,” McIlroy said at the time.

“I’d say the winning score isn’t going to be much above what the leader is right now, especially the way the course is going to play over the weekend, and the especially this golf course has played over the weekend the last couple years.

“The greens will continue to get a little bit firmer, and will put such a premium on putting it in the fairway and hitting a lot of greens. If I can focus on that over the weekend, get a couple of putts to drop, I think I’ve still got a decent chance.”

Rory McIlroy’s worst performance in the Dubai Desert Classic

As it stands, Rory McIlroy is actually on course to card his worst ever performance at the Dubai Desert Classic.

Since playing the tournament from the age of 16, McIlroy’s record around the Majlis course is exceptional.

Indeed, his worst ever finish in nine appearances so far is a 10th place in 2011.

So, while he might not get over the line and make it three in a row this year, Rory McIlroy is very much the man to beat around Dubai and when he comes back in 2026, he’ll be keen to get back to winning ways.