It is absolutely no secret that things are going to be tough at the US Open at Oakmont Country Club next week but things could be about to get a whole lot worse for the likes of Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele.
The rough is expected to be very penal at Oakmont , while tournament organisers have warned players that the greens will be extremely fast as well.
Of course, the US Open is historically a dry event which makes stopping the ball on the greens even trickier in the main.
However, with the rough very much being one of the main issues for players at Oakmont, things could be about to get even trickier.
And for Rory McIlroy and a few others, that is bad news.
Why the weather forecast will worry Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele for the US Open
Like in any major tournament, finding fairways and keeping out of trouble is going to be key for anyone hoping to win.
However, with Oakmont being so penal and the rough so hard to get out of, those who struggle to hit fairways could be in trouble.
Current weather forecasts are predicting heavy rain in the build up, while the rain is expected to continue into the tournament, causing chaos for players depending on their tee time. For McIlroy and others lower down the accuracy tables, this will be a problem.
Rory McIlroy currently ranks down in 170th for fairways hit percentage, with just 51.13% of fairways hit for The Masters winner. Likewise, Xander Schauffele is also struggling in 2025 with hitting fairways, down in 161st with just 52.58% of fairways hit.
On the flipside to that, we could well see the emergence of the more accurate players.
| Player | Driving accuracy |
| Collin Morikawa | 2nd (72.87%) |
| Scottie Scheffler | 28th (64.52%) |
| Keegan Bradley | 43rd (62.5%) |
| Max Homa | 93rd (58.91%) |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 134th (55.26%) |
| Rory McIlroy | 170th (51.13%) |
Englishman Aaron Rai leads the field in driving accuracy this season but it is the man behind him, Collin Morikawa, who is of most interest.
Morikawa is 2nd on 72.87% of fairways hit (411/564), meaning if he can get the big stick working, he’s going to have the chance at firing darts into what should be slightly softer greens.
If that is the case, then Morikawa could well land a third major title, while the likes of McIlroy, Schauffele, and others will be left to rue their inaccuracies.
The positive for wet weather and Rory McIlroy at Oakmont
There is, of course, a flip side to things being wet at a US Open course and that is that the course will play longer, which in turn suits the longer hitters if they can find the right spots.
Right now, Rory McIlroy leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee and much of that comes down to his distance, which is third on TOUR.
That means if McIlroy can find the right areas with that sort of distance, he’ll have short clubs and wedges into the greens and that in itself will help.
However, based on McIlroy’s performance at the Canadian Open, that looks unlikely, and with Justin Rose warning the long hitters to be accurate, it could prove a hard week for McIlroy.
Receive exclusive golf news and updates twice a week to your mailbox
