It should come as absolutely no surprise to see Collin Morikawa once again right in the mix to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week.
It has been a long year on the golf course for Collin Morikawa. The 29-year-old came in for criticism after failing to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational 12 months ago, with Morikawa deciding to not speak with the media after Sunday’s final round at Bay Hill.
Do you think Collin Morikawa will win a major in 2026?
He was back to his old self at Pebble Beach…
Morikawa would manage just two more top 10s on the PGA Tour in 2025. So it was alarming when he missed the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii in January.
But as the world’s best prepare to head back to Bay Hill this week, Morikawa has reason to be extremely optimistic that he can go one better this time around.
Collin Morikawa heads to the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a point to prove
As mentioned, Morikawa probably has a chip on his shoulder. The manner in which he lost out to Russell Henley clearly hurt the two-time major champion.
Morikawa led by three with five holes to play. But Henley was able to turn the duel around with the help of a chip-in for eagle on the 16th.
The result stung, with Morikawa seemingly taking a much more prickly tone with the media in the weeks that followed. And he will be desperate to ensure that no one is talking about his 2025 performance after this week.
Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are not quite firing on all cylinders – yet
Neither Scottie Scheffler nor Rory McIlroy have performed poorly this year. Scheffler’s worst finish is tied for 12th, while McIlroy was second at the Genesis Invitational without ever really looking like winning on Sunday at Riviera.
In truth, it would be stunning if both players were not in the mix to win.
But Scheffler has made a habit of getting off to slow starts in 2026. He is also 57th on the PGA Tour for strokes gained approach this season.
When you couple that with the fact that he is 55th for driving accuracy, you have to think that Scheffler could struggle, by his standards, around a tough Bay Hill.
McIlroy’s iron play has been quietly elite this season. But the trade off is that he is not driving the ball quite as well.
This may be one of the last big events of 2026 where one of the two best players on the planet do not emerge victorious.
Collin Morikawa is posting extremely impressive strokes gained numbers right now
Bay Hill provides one of the most thorough tests on the PGA Tour. Players will be penalised if they keep missing fairways. There are also going to be a number of longer iron shots into greens.
Morikawa is 23rd on tour for strokes gained off the tee this season, while he is sixth for approach. He is also inside the top 10 for driving accuracy.
If the putter behaves itself, he could be incredibly difficult to stop this week.
It should also be noted that Morikawa has not lost strokes to the field off the tee in a regular PGA Tour event since August 2024, according to Data Golf.
His last two starts also mark the first time since last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational that Morikawa has not lost strokes to the field in any major category for two events in a row.
Unlike last year, Morikawa does not go into this week off the back of a ridiculously long run without a win on the PGA Tour. He proved at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am that he still has what it takes to win on the biggest stages.
In fact, Morikawa can now head to Bay Hill with the belief that he could soon make this season his first since 2021 to include multiple victories.
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