Justin Thomas has been one of the most successful golfers on the PGA Tour over the past seven or eight years.
However, it has been painfully obvious for everyone to see that Thomas has regressed badly since his last major win in 2022.
The 32-year-old has won only once on the PGA Tour since then and there have been hugely worrying signs in his golf game since 2023.
Thomas is still desperate to achieve great things on the PGA Tour and to consistently represent the United States at the Ryder Cup.
Justin Thomas will never win a major again – change my mind
Worryingly, though, he hasn’t shown many positive signs over the past three years, aside from his win at the RBC Heritage, of course.
It sounds harsh suggesting that we may well have seen the best of Thomas already. He is only 32 after all.
However, he has fallen so far behind over the past two years and there is a genuine fear that his struggles could be set to continue for a while yet.
Three reasons why Justin Thomas could be finished as an elite golfer
There are a few reasons why fans of Justin Thomas should be concerned ahead of the 2026 season.
The main thing that has plagued the 16-time PGA Tour winner over the past two years has been his poor driving.
Poor driving
Thomas was ranked way down in 89th position in strokes gained off the tee in 2025.
In 2024, he was ranked 72nd in strokes gained off the tee and 160th in driving accuracy.
Things were just as bad for him the year before, when he was ranked 62nd and 154th respectively in strokes gained off the tee and driving accuracy.
He was ranked 169th in driving accuracy and regardless which golf course you’re playing, that is simply not conducive to winning major championships.
When you’re under pressure at the business end of tournaments, the last thing you need is a swing which is liable to break down.
And unfortunately, that is exactly the problem that Thomas has had for quite some time now.
Despite the old saying, ‘drive for show, putt for dough’, driving is arguably the most important part of the game and it’s simply impossible to win golf tournaments when you’re only hitting half of the fairways.
Lack of recent wins now a real concern
Sure, he has been a prolific winner in the past, but one victory since May 2022 really is a poor return by his standards.
Have the last three-and-a-half years just been a prolonged slump for Thomas? Or is the fact that he’s only won once since his last PGA Championship triumph a sign that his best days are behind him?
There is a real argument to be made that the latter is, in fact, the reality for Thomas right now.
Not only has he not been winning with any kind of regularity but his form in the majors has been horrendous as well.
He has just one top-10 to his name in the majors since he won the PGA Championship in 2022 – a T-8 at the PGA in 2024.
Perhaps more worryingly, though, he has missed seven cuts in the 14 major championships he has played since his victory at Southern Hills three years ago.
If his poor results continue in 2026, it will be a really long way back to the top for him.
Competition is far too fierce now
When Thomas was at the height of his game, Scottie Scheffler wasn’t around.
Thoughts?
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Players like Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm were at the very beginning of their journeys as well.
Even the most ardent of Justin Thomas fans would surely admit that the two-time PGA Championship winner isn’t on the same level as any of those players right now.
Sure, numerous big names have left the PGA Tour to join LIV since 2022, but every young golfer who comes out of college right now seems to be ready-made to win the very biggest events.
The likes of Jackson Koivun, Michael Thorbjornsen and Luke Clanton are very special while Marco Penge could take the PGA Tour by storm next season.
Thomas is falling further and further behind the very best golfers in the world and the challenge for him will be to evolve and improve to a level where he’s capable of seeing off the threat posed by those young stars with huge potential.
Another big concern for Thomas is the fact that he has been forced to undergo back surgery in his early-30s.
That is never a good sign. Obviously we all hope that he returns from the microdiscectomy surgery without any issues.
However, even if he does return to full health quickly, there’s a genuine chance that he will struggle to win again unless he revamps the swing which has been causing him so many problems since the start of the 2023 season.
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