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Smylie Kaufman assesses Collin Morikawa’s chances of winning The Masters as he suggests what the winning score might be

Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
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There have certainly been a couple of occasions already at The Masters where Collin Morikawa has threatened to make a real charge and perhaps take control of the tournament.

Collin Morikawa had a collapse on Thursday almost as dramatic as Rory McIlroy‘s. The two-time major champion found himself three under par with four holes to play before ending the day at level.

Meanwhile, he responded to a bogey on the fourth hole on Friday by making three birdies before the turn. And it was a similar story on the second nine as he teed off on the 18th hole at four under par for the day.

Unfortunately, a five on the last may have taken some of the shine off of Morikawa’s round. And he goes into the weekend five shots off the lead.

Smylie Kaufman suggests whether Collin Morikawa could still win The Masters

With the likes of Scottie Scheffler, McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau ahead of him, it looks set to be a big ask for the 28-year-old to really challenge.

However, speaking on The Smylie Show, Smylie Kaufman insisted that Morikawa is far from out of the running to win the green jacket.

The Masters - Round Two
Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images

“Yeah totally, 100 percent [he’s still in the tournament]. Five shots within the lead’s totally fine. Now, the guys at even par, I don’t think those guys have much of a shot, especially with who you’re looking at at the top of the leaderboard. When you see the strength of Rory, Bryson and Justin Rose, who’s obviously playing well, it seems like this thing’s going to get up into the double digits on the weekend,” he said.

How Collin Morikawa has performed over the weekend at Augusta National during his career

Morikawa has a mixed record over the weekend at The Masters. In his three of his five previous appearances, he has shot a worse score for the final two rounds than he has for the first two.

Meanwhile, on his debut in 2020, the American finished at level par after rounds of 70, 74, 70 and 74.

YearMorikawa’s score after two roundsMorikawa’s score for the final two rounds
2020EvenEven
2021-2-1
2022-1-3
2023-6+2
2024-3-1

Perhaps a decline in performance is to be expected given that it is the final two rounds of a major; when the pressure should be like almost nothing else in the game.

But Morikawa needs to make things happen on Saturday and Sunday if he is going to win his first green jacket. With the quality ahead of him, you would imagine that someone is going to go fairly low over the weekend to take control of the tournament.

If that is the case, then Morikawa is going to have to find a gear he honestly has not had for some time on the PGA Tour.