Ryan Lavner predicts how Rory McIlroy is going to perform at the US Open this week after experiencing ‘wake-up call’

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When Rory McIlroy holed the putt which won him The Masters and completed the career grand slam, few would have ever imagined that it would be possible for the Northern Irishman to go into the US Open with so little momentum under his belt.

Of course, Rory McIlroy was always likely to take his foot off the gas after winning The Masters. It was the tournament the 36-year-old was looking to win for at least 11 years. And there were plenty of occasions when many would have assumed that McIlroy would not triumph at Augusta National.

But it has been slightly alarming how he has performed since the first major of the year.

McIlroy had decent finishes at both the Zurich Classic and the Truist Championship without ever looking too impressive. Meanwhile, he barely made the cut at the PGA Championship, and missed out on the weekend at the RBC Canadian Open.

Rory McIlroy’s hopes at the US Open assessed

McIlroy struggled with the driver at TPC Toronto, having seen his previous driver deemed to be non-conforming while at Quail Hollow. So it is far from ideal heading into Oakmont.

As Ryan Lavner noted on the Golf Channel Podcast, there seems to be a real possibility that McIlroy may be about to register his first finish outside of the top 10 at the US Open since 2019.

“In those interim weeks between the PGA Championship and where he showed up at the RBC Canadian Open, he did some more head-to-head, at home testing and put in a new driver head, the Qi35, which is TaylorMade’s newest model. That driver head, if you recall, is the one he briefly experimented with at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Remember that, over the first 54 holes, drove it poorly, ended up swapping out for the final round and then went on a pretty epic tear: won The Players Championship and won The Masters as well. It’s clear that there’s still some testing that needs to be done, because not only was it a different driver head, he also experimented with shortening the driver shaft. In theory, trying to put the ball in play more often, certainly with an eye on the US Open and understanding how important finding the fairway is going to be for the year’s third major. It was a complete disaster off the tee,” he said.

“He hit less than 50 percent of the fairways at TPC Toronto. Admitted as much in an interview with reporters afterwards in Canada, like ‘yeah I’ve got two or three days at home and early week at Oakmont where I need to find something’, because if you’re not finding fairways at Oakmont, it is going to be an almighty struggle. One thing that I do know that we discussed on Wednesday was the motivation factor: Rory admitting himself that it’s really tough for me at this point, after having this life-altering moment to grind on the range for three to four hours. I’m assuming that this was a wake-up call for him, that he needed to do just that.

“But the US Open is going to be a test of patience, it’s going to be a test of guts, it’s going to be a test of tenacity and perseverance. For much as Rory McIlroy’s skill over the past couple of decades has been distilled into this awesome, tantalising power, and these birdie binges and so much excitement and thrills, his US Open record is phenomenal. Every year since 2019 he has finished inside the top 10. He continues to get better. Obviously had the close call a year ago at Pinehurst, followed up with that at LACC. He understands how to play down and dirty golf, and gritty golf, does he currently have the game that’s going to allow him to do that? Based on what we saw at the PGA, based on what we saw in Canada, I have a hard time imagining that he’s going to be keeping the top 10 streak alive.”

Rory McIlroy’s US Open finishes since 2019

Not only has McIlroy been in really poor form of late, but his dip has come at the same time as Scottie Scheffler ascending back to the very top of the game. Scheffler has won on three of his last four starts.

It is extremely difficult to see a world in which McIlroy elevates his own game to the kind of level Scheffler would be able to dip to, particularly at a course which is as demanding as Oakmont.

Perhaps the low expectations will help McIlroy as it would be a real surprise if he was able to put himself in contention this week.

McIlroy will turn things around at some stage. However, it is surely going to take something special for that turnaround to take place as soon as the third major of the year.