Rory McIlroy told the score he’ll need to shoot on the opening day at Augusta as early Masters weather forecast released

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It does not feel like much of an exaggeration to say that all eyes will be on Rory McIlroy at The Masters as the Northern Irishman gets his latest attempt at securing the green jacket.

If Rory McIlroy was hoping to fly under the radar in the days leading up to The Masters, his start to the PGA Tour season has done him no favours at all. He has won at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Players Championship – making 2025 the only year in which he has won twice stateside before April.

Some wondered following the Texas Children’s Houston Open whether McIlroy alluding to an elbow injury was an attempt to lift some pressure ahead of his upcoming trip to Augusta National.

While McIlroy continues to go into the first major of the year seeking to both complete the career grand slam and win his fifth major, the pressure is going to be enormous. And his impressive form in recent months does not help.

Rory McIlroy told the ‘key to success’ at The Masters

Despite McIlroy giving himself an amazing chance to win in 2011 – going into the final round with a four-shot lead – the 35-year-old has not actually too many genuine opportunities to triumph over the years.

And it appears that the key may be the starts he makes each time. Speaking on Golf Channel Podcast, Ryan Lavner insisted that it is imperative that McIlroy breaks 70 on the opening day for only the third time in his career.

“It’s over [if he doesn’t get off to a fast start]. Thursday at Augusta National is the most important day of Rory McIlroy’s season, bar none,” he said.

“Yes, most likely [even par would not be good enough], especially when you look at the weather forecast, it’s going to be about 70 degrees, it’s going to be sunny, it’s going to be light winds. You look at the opening round score of the last four or five winners at The Masters, it’s somewhere in that 67 to 66 range. You have to go and get it early, and then sort of drop anchor for the rest of the week. Yes, if Rory McIlroy does not shoot in the 60s, I think it is most likely – again, barring something that we have not seen in recent trends – it’s going to be very difficult for him to come back from that.

“At least when you look at the statistical trends and you look at the way Rory played in his 16 years at Augusta National, the two times in which he has had the best opportunities to win were in 2011 and he opened with 65, and in 2018 when he played in the final group with Patrick Reed, those are the only two instances where he shot in the 60s in the opening round at The Masters.

“That is clearly the key to success, and every other time, he has managed to play some of his worst golf on that opening day.”

How the winner of the last 10 Masters Tournaments has started

As Lavner suggests, it is very rare that the player who ends the week having the green jacket being placed upon them begins their tournament with a score in the 70s.

In fact, of the last 10 Masters tournaments, just three winners – Danny Willett, Sergio García and Tiger Woods – have failed to open with a round in the 60s.

You would have to go back to Woods’ win in 2005 for the last time an eventual champion ended Thursday over par.

Since 2012, McIlroy has shot nearly every score between 69 and 76 on day one of The Masters. So it will feel like a real hurdle cleared if he can fire a 68 out of the gates – even if that is not enough to put him at the top of the leaderboard.