While the Valspar Championship may not be as prestigious as the two events which came before it on the PGA Tour, it certainly managed to deliver a blockbuster finish between Viktor Hovland and Justin Thomas.
Both Viktor Hovland and Justin Thomas went into the Valspar Championship on a run without a victory on the PGA Tour which is far too long for players of their ability. Thomas has not won since the 2022 PGA Championship, while Hovland’s most recent triumph came at the Tour Championship the following year.
It appeared that it was going to be Thomas who got across the line at Innisbrook. The American led by three at one stage down the back nine on Sunday in Florida.
However, two bogeys in the final three holes, coupled with Hovland making birdie on 16 and 17 turned the tide and saw the Norwegian secure a much-needed win.
Justin Thomas and Viktor Hovland’s Masters hopes assessed after the Valspar Championship
Of course, any performances at this time of year feel particularly significant for those who will soon be making the drive down Magnolia Lane and teeing it up at the Masters next month. So Hovland and Thomas will be amongst those who will have some momentum heading to Augusta National.
Both men missed the cut at Augusta last year. But speaking on the Golf Channel Podcast, Rex Hoggard explained why he is particularly optimistic for Thomas’ chances at the first major of the year when asked which player he has higher hopes for.
“That is not a tough decision for me. I think Viktor Hovland is clearly moving in the right direction, but JT. I think everything about his game [is improving]. His putting is the part that blew me away. He picked up almost 12 strokes on the field in Tampa at putting,” he said.
“If he continues to hit the ball like he has, really the last two weeks. And I always go back to something Rory did a good job of explaining the last two years, and that’s if I play a good round of golf, if I make six or seven or in JT’s last week at TPC Sawgrass, 10 birdies in a round, I can get rid of the other stuff. It is easier to get rid of the bogeys and double bogeys and the mistakes. Those I can clean up. As long as I am making the birdies those are the hard things to come about. He is clearly making those when you look at what he did last week and this week. I think cleaning up the mistakes is the easy part.”
The Justin Thomas stats which surprised Ryan Lavner ahead of the Masters
Unlike Hovland, Thomas is, of course, a major champion. And his form over the last 12 months seems to have been considerably better than the European, with Hovland really battling with his game.
But Thomas has plenty of demons of his own in the game’s four biggest events. As well as missing the cut at the Masters, he also failed to make the weekend at the US Open in 2024.
And while Ryan Lavner also told the Golf Channel Podcast that something appears to be a little different about Thomas’ mental game right now, he admitted being a little surprised by how poorly he has performed in the majors.
“I certainly have more confidence at the Masters in Justin Thomas. I was kind of struck that Justin Thomas’ major record since the 2022 PGA is nothing short of awful,” he said.
“I mean one top 30 finish in the ten events. He played fine last year in 2024, 2023 was a low point for Justin Thomas, and it really comes down to putting. Last two years on the PGA Tour – 135th and 174th. You have referenced how well he putt at Innisbrook, much improved as well. He is now average to slightly above average on the PGA Tour on the greens. That is huge because if his ball striking is off, and it has not been all that much with his approach play which is entering the levels during his peak, he doesn’t have a bail out on the greens if his long game abandons him. At major championship venues you are going to miss more greens and be a bit trickier. He has a sublime short game.
“But if you can’t make the five, seven, 10 footers with regularity it’s easy to see why Justin Thomas’s major record of late hasn’t been great.
“Another reason I like Justin Thomas in the major championships this year is because he is showing a level of patience we have not typically seen from him this year.
“I have covered him a long time, all the way back from his junior golf days, and he is not a patient person by nature but you have seen what he has done the last two weeks – shot 78, 62 at TPC Sawgrass to make the cut at the Players Championship. This past week went out in 40 on Thursday, changed his attitude and then went out and shots 65 and 66 at the weekend. We know the firepower is there but if he can just ease off the pressure a little bit. He puts so much pressure on himself to start big tournaments that I think it can be counter productive for him. If he can just ease off the pressure and not have to come back, I think the patience he has shown the past two weeks is very helpful.”
Like Collin Morikawa, Thomas is seemingly doing absolutely everything to get himself across the line. And had Hovland not hit two particularly outstanding iron shots in the final three holes on Sunday, Thomas probably would have woken up on Monday having won the Valspar.
So that patience seems particularly important right now. If Thomas can remain positive about his game, there is every reason to think that a big victory is just around the corner.
Certainly, many will be excited about his chances once he gets to Augusta.
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