Butch Harmon has delivered his verdict on whether he believes Rory McIlroy can overtake Scottie Scheffler in 2026.
McIlroy enjoyed a superb 2025 season on the PGA Tour, with three wins to his name including The Masters and The Players Championship but incredibly, Scheffler still managed to steal his thunder.
After his win at The Masters, it seemed like the Northern Irishman would run away with the Player of the Year award, with the American still winless at the time.
However, the world number one turned things around from May onwards, winning five times including two major championships, one Signature Event and a playoff event.
McIlroy has apparently admitted that he cannot challenge Scheffler every single week, and that others need to step up.

Scheffler seems to have the correct mindset at every tournament he plays from his very first tee shot while the same simply can’t be said for McIlroy.
So is there any chance that the five-time major champion can chase the world number one down next season, and perhaps even overtake him?
Butch Harmon tells Rory McIlroy there are two things he needs to do to catch Scottie Scheffler and ‘take off’
McIlroy is clearly a long way off the level that Scheffler is at right now.
However, he clearly has the talent required to turn things around if he genuinely wants to.
When speaking on the Son of a Butch Podcast alongside his son, Claude, Butch Harmon was asked what McIlroy has to do to reach world number one again.
He explained: “Is he rejuvenated, is he motivated to get better? Or is he just going to say I’ve got a great life and I’m going to enjoy my life?
“Either way, that’s his decision and I’m not saying one way is better than the other because people are different. 2026, the start of the year, it’s going to be interesting to see how Rory McIlroy comes out.
“I just want him to be happy with his life, if he’s happy, then I’m happy for him.
“I think what he has to do, he has to look at himself in two ways. Firstly, what are my weaknesses? What do I still have to work on that I’m not really good at? Then work on that in the off-season.
“Number two, let’s set a schedule where I’m going to play courses that suit my game.
“I can play wherever I want to play, I can play as few events as I want to play or as many events as I want to play, other than majors.

“Let’s see the courses that really suit my game.
“I think in the off-season he needs to sit down and look at his stats. The stat I look at with my players is proximity to the hole from every yardage.
“If he would ask me, I would have that conversation with him. I’m not going to tell him what to do, he’s Rory McIlroy! If he did those two things, I think the sky’s the limit, he would take off.
“Can he take over Scottie Scheffler? Scottie Scheffler will have a down time, Nicklaus had a down year, Tiger Woods had one down year in 98 when he won only once. Scottie hasn’t had that down year yet, but it’s going to come, it’s human nature.
“It’s going to be interesting to see what happens because they’re far and away the best players in the world.“
What Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler’s proximity to the hole stats tell us
McIlroy was inferior to Scheffler in almost every single statistical category in 2025, aside from putting.
As Harmon mentioned the proximity to the hole stats, let’s see how the two golfers compared in that category this season.
| Yardage range | McIlroy’s average proximity | McIlroy’s rank | Scheffler’s average proximity | Scheffler’s rank |
| 50-75 yards | 20′ 5 | 143 | 11′ 4 | 14 |
| 75-100 yards | 15′ 0 | 23 | 16′ 2 | 42 |
| 100-125 yards | 19′ 3 | 74 | 20′ 4 | 112 |
| 125-150 yards | 20′ 5 | 8 | 21′ 3 | 23 |
| 150-175 yards | 29′ 5 | 133 | 25′ 7 | 20 |
| 175-200 yards | 32′ 11 | 71 | 29′ 4 | 2 |
| 200-225 yards | 37′ 8 | 22 | 38′ 4 | 35 |
| 225-250 yards | 49′ 0 | 64 | 47’8 | 37 |
| 250-275 yards | 54′ 10 | 32 | 70′ 9 | 153 |
| 275 yards+ | 75′ 8 | 49 | 91′ 0 | 135 |
From those numbers, it could actually be argued that McIlroy needs to improve in almost every single category, if he is to overtake Scheffler next season, especially from the 50-75 yard and the 150-250 yard ranges.
Scheffler is far and away the best player on the planet right now, but does McIlroy have the motivation needed to catch him? We will soon find out.
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