Brandel Chamblee completely disagrees with Patrick Cantlay ahead of the Ryder Cup

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Patrick Cantlay once shared his theory on why Europe have dominated the United States in the Ryder Cup over the past 30 years, but Brandel Chamblee is not buying it.

Cantlay will be part of the US Ryder Cup team set to take on the Europeans at Bethpage Black in just under three weeks.

Meanwhile, Chamblee will be covering the event from start to finish for the Golf Channel, as per usual.

Cantlay has a sensational Ryder Cup record, so despite his average form throughout the 2025 PGA Tour season, he is expected to play a key role for Keegan Bradley‘s side up in New York State.

Over the past few years, Cantlay’s tediously slow play and stoic demeanour have ensured that he is far from the most popular player on the PGA Tour among the fans.

And Chamblee will be able to relate to the 33-year-old, given the criticism he has received throughout the years as a golf analyst.

Patrick Cantlay shared his Ryder Cup theory back in 2021

Back in 2021, Cantlay suggested that Europe winning regularly at the Ryder Cup was down to little more than pure luck.

“So I’ve read a few gin books. Let’s see if I get it right. If you play enough gin hands a one or two percent difference in skill translates to almost an assured win over many, many, many hands of gin,“ said Cantlay.

“But you could have a big difference between somebody, maybe a 60-to-40% skill level difference, and gin is still chancy enough to where you could play 10 hands and lose six or seven of the hands than someone that’s much worse than you skill-wise.

“These matches are only played every two years, and golf is very chancy. So would it surprise you if the U.S. went on a similar run to what Europe has been on for the next 20 years. Wouldn’t surprise me,“ Cantlay explained.

“You go to Vegas and you play roulette and the chances are 50/50 but skewed toward the house a little, it could hit red six times in a row, but that’s not abnormal.

“You flip a quarter it would be weird if the quarter flipped tails, heads, tails, heads, tails, heads. Then you would think something trippy was going on.“

At the time, it seemed like those comments were slightly misjudged to say the least.

Cantlay’s comments perhaps perfectly summed up the American players’ attitudes to competing in the Ryder Cup.

To the European players, the competition is everything while it seems like it’s just another week for the men from the USA.

Now Chamblee has explained why Cantlay was so wrong with his Ryder Cup theory.

Brandel Chamblee debunks Patrick Cantlay’s Ryder Cup claim

The 63-year-old receives plenty of criticism from golf fans due to his controversial takes on the game and outspoken nature.

However, he still commands a huge following with golf fans desperate to hear what he is going to come out with next. Whether they actually like him as a person or not is immaterial.

It’s like how human nature ensures that a car accident actually causes traffic on the other side of the highway due to the fact that people slow down just to see what has happened.

That said, his latest take on Cantlay’s comments from 2021 is absolutely brilliant, and golf fans will surely appreciate it, whether they are American or European.

Here is what Chamblee said in full in response to the eight-time PGA Tour winner’s comments at Whistling Straits four years ago:

“Since the Ryder Cup is looming and many videos are resurfacing of past players trying to explain Europe’s edge in the event, I stumbled upon Patrick Cantlay using a gin analogy to describe the disparity in outcomes. When back in September of 2021 he was asked why Europe keeps winning he responded: ‘If you play enough gin hands, a one or two percent difference in skill translates to almost an assured win over many, many, many hands of gin, but you could have a big difference between somebody, maybe a 60 to 40 percent skill level difference, and gin is still chancy enough to where you could play 10 hands and lose six or seven of the hands than someone that’s much worse than you skill-wise.’ Implying here that the USA just hadn’t been getting the right cards and that given enough matches Europe’s luck would end and the USA, as the stronger team, would win.

“The first Ryder Cup played after the advent of the world rankings in 1986 ( to as accurately as possible judge the strength of a team) was in Ohio in 1987 and Europe’s 12 players average world rank was 40th compared to USA’s 17.8. Statistically the USA was more than twice the team of Europe. Europe won 15-13. One Ryder Cup. 28 matches. A small sample size. And it could have been chance, or luck, as Cantlay suggests. However since 1987 there have been 18 Ryder Cups played and 504 matches played in them. During that time span in those Ryder Cups the average world rank of the 12 players playing for the USA has been 18.02, while the average world rank of Europe’s 12 players has been 30.67. Over that time period the USA statistically has not been 1 to 2% better…but 51.96% better. Converting a substantial skill difference (51.96% better) to a win rate, something Patrick Cantlay was alluding to with his gin analogy, the USA, statistically should have won 60.31% of the matches and Ryder Cups played since 1987. 60.31% of 18 is 11 and of 504 it is 304 and yet the USA has won just 6 Ryder Cups out the last 18 and just 242.5 points out of a possible 504 points or matches. Clearly this is not a matter of luck.

“Even a 3% better team over “many many many” matches (and I think 504 matches, or hands of gin for that matter qualifies as “many many many”) would have won 267 points of the 504 and 10 or 11 of the Ryder Cups since 1987.

“The Ryder Cup is about group dynamics and passion. It’s not that the USA doesn’t come together and don’t have passion for the event, it’s just that the European teams do a better job of leaving their egos at the door of the locker room and they simply have more passion for the event. Case in point, Sergio Garcia paid over a million in fines JUST TO BE ELIGIBLE FOR THE RYDER CUP. While the US team has demanded to be PAID TO PLAY FOR THE RYDER CUP.

“What makes a great player or a great team isn’t any one thing, it’s an assembly of small details, like in a mosaic, or perhaps more precisely the symbiosis of a symphony. The harmonious integration of different elements for the broader concept of mutual benefit and cooperation in various contexts, all with the goal of producing beautiful music.. and to continue the metaphor, the Europeans have been, for the better part of 40 years, producing better music than the Americans.“

Chamblee makes a great point here and the sooner the American players realise that team unity has to be organic in order to work, the better.

Patrick Cantlay’s Ryder Cup record

Team USA need the man affectionately known as ‘Patty Ice’ to perform at Bethpage later this month.

Cantlay has saved his best stuff for team competition in the past, and he possesses a 15-6-1 record in the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup combined.

Here are his results in the Ryder Cup over the past few years:

Cantlay is actually someone who could play four or five sessions for Team USA at the upcoming Ryder Cup.

Xander Schauffele will most likely be his partner, so much will depend on the 2024 Open champion’s form as to whether Cantlay gets to play every single foursomes and fourballs session.

Whatever happens, Cantlay and his teammates cannot afford to think that Europe’s recent domination of the Ryder Cup is down to pure luck.

Chamblee has highlighted numerous reasons why that simply isn’t the case and in order to avoid complacency, Bradley would do well to show his players the golf analyst’s X post.